A data analytics firm, EN Analytics, is predicting that the Parliamentary Candidates of the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) will see their performance in the upcoming December elections decline by an average of 2% compared to their 2020 results.
Ghana currently has a near-hung parliament, with both leading parties holding 137 out of the 275 seats in the legislature, alongside one independent candidate.
In its 2024 parliamentary forecast, EN Analytics asserts that heading into the December elections, the NPP has approximately 96 seats considered safe, while the National Democratic Congress (NDC) has 82 safe seats. This indicates that as many as 97 constituencies remain in contention, potentially swinging to either of the two leading parties.
The Central Region, which is traditionally a swing area, has 15 constituencies classified as toss-ups. The Greater Accra and Northern Regions follow with 11 constituencies each likely to go either way. Additionally, all six constituencies in the Ahafo Region are considered toss-ups.
Surprisingly, the Ashanti Region has five toss-up constituencies, four of which are currently held by NPP candidates. This includes the Atwima Mponua parliamentary seat, which the firm suggests the NPP could lose for the first time in its history. The Abuakwa North seat in the Eastern Region, once a stronghold for the NPP, is also deemed shaky.
On the other hand, the NDC could lose the Odododiodioo seat for the first time since 2000, according to the forecast.
The model used by EN Analytics is based on two categories of data: historical election results from 2000 to 2020 and a rating factor called the Economic Wellbeing Index (EWI), which assesses the performance of the incumbent government over the past four years.
Source: Ghana/Starrfm.com.gh/103.5FM/Edem Kojo
