Global InfoAnalytics’ latest forecast for Ghana’s 2024 general elections predicts a decisive victory for John Dramani Mahama, leader of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).
According to the report, Mahama is projected to secure 52.2% of the votes, outpacing the ruling New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) candidate, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, who is expected to gain 41.4%. Other candidates, including Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako, are predicted to garner 2.5% and 3.0% of the vote, respectively. The forecast has a margin of error of ±1.8%, with an estimated voter turnout of 77.6%.
The research, released just eight days before the December 7 general elections, highlights regional dynamics as critical to the projected outcome. Mahama is predicted to dominate in 10 regions, including Greater Accra, Central, Volta, and Northern, while Bawumia is expected to secure victories in Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions. This regional divide underscores the continued significance of strongholds in shaping election outcomes.
On the parliamentary front, the NDC is poised to win approximately 150 seats, far surpassing the NPP’s projected 99. One seat is likely to go to an independent candidate, while 29 constituencies remain too close to call, signaling tight races in key areas. The forecast suggests a shift in parliamentary representation, with the NDC consolidating gains in its traditional strongholds while challenging the NPP in competitive regions.
The report also incorporates alternative scenarios, with Mahama’s support potentially ranging from 50.4% to 54.1%, depending on final voter turnout and decisions by the undecided electorate. Economic concerns, job creation, and public service delivery were identified as key factors influencing voter preferences.
These predictions come amid competing analyses. A survey released on November 21, 2024, by Professor Smart Sarpong of Kumasi Technical University offered a contrasting view, placing Dr. Bawumia in the lead with 49.1% of the vote, compared to Mahama’s 45.8%. However, the latest Global InfoAnalytics report reinforces the NDC’s momentum as the election date approaches.
With both parties intensifying their campaigns, the stage is set for a closely watched election that could redefine Ghana’s political landscape.
Source: Ghana/Starrfm.com.gh/103.5FM/103.5FM/Emmanuel Mensah
