Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, has warned that removing Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia from the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) electoral equation would significantly weaken the party’s fortunes in the Northern Region and nationally.
Speaking on data from recent polls conducted by Global InfoAnalytics on EIB Election Hub on GHOne TV on Saturday, Dankwah said the figures show that Dr. Bawumia remains central to holding the NPP together in the northern part of the country, where the party has traditionally struggled.
“The data shows currently that if you take Bawumia out of the NPP equation, their support in the northern region collapses,” he said. “And the Northern region is not an area they are already strong at. So you need a figure to hold that region together, and Bawumia is the one who is doing that.”
According to Mussa Dankwah, while the NPP’s traditional strongholds may experience temporary fractures, those areas are more likely to realign with the party over time. However, he cautioned that losing the Northern Region would be far more damaging.
“In their current areas, that is basically NPP’s base, even if there is a fracture, they will come back,” he explained. “But when the north goes away from NPP, it will be hard to get the north to come back to NPP.”
He said the data has informed strategic thinking within the party ahead of the ongoing presidential primaries, arguing that retaining Dr. Bawumia is seen as key to maintaining internal cohesion.
“Strategically, it is better to present Bawumia again and hold the party together than ditch him and lose the northern region,” Dankwah noted.
Dankwah further revealed that head-to-head polling scenarios between NPP and National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidates show a sharp national decline for the NPP when Dr. Bawumia is not on the ballot.
“From the polls we have done, when Bawumia is not on the ballot, NPP sinks very low nationally, and that number is driven by the performance in the north,” he said.
He added that the party is closely watching these trends, particularly as its support base has shifted in recent years.
“Before, NPP had a grip on their core part of the country. Now they’ve lost it. So if you lose the Akan base and then you lose the north, that would be a disaster,” Dankwah warned.
Providing broader national context, he said current polling shows a significant shift in party identification. “Nationally, about 35 or 36 per cent say they are NDC, while 31 per cent say they are NPP. It’s never happened before,” he said.
Despite this, Dankwah argued that dissatisfaction within the NPP’s traditional base may be temporary. “Even if the Akan base is angry, NPP is there; at that point, they will come back,” he said. “But those in the north, when they are angry, they go.”
The NPP is currently voting to elect its flagbearer as part of preparations toward the 2028 general elections, with Dr. Bawumia among the leading contenders.
Source: Starrfm.com.gh
