A new national tracking poll by Global InfoAnalytics offers a preview of Ghana’s 2028 presidential race, placing Former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu, as front-runners for their parties in what may become one of the most defining elections in the country’s Fourth Republic.
The July 2025 poll, conducted across 84 constituencies with a sample of 10,493 respondents, provides early insights into the race to lead the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
Bawumia Tightens Grip on NPP
Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, commands 56% of general voter preference in the NPP leadership race—an 8-point increase from the April 2025 poll(48%). His closest rival, Kennedy Agyapong, trails with 23%, while Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum garners 9%. Among NPP supporters, Bawumia’s dominance is even clearer, commanding 70% support. Surprisingly, 50% of NDC voters also say they prefer Bawumia as the NPP’s next flagbearer, hinting at rare cross-party appeal.
Haruna Edges Ahead in NDC Race
On the NDC front, former Minority Leader and current Education Minister, Hon. Haruna Iddrisu, leads a tight race with 27% support from general voters, narrowly edging past party chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia (26%) and former Finance Minister Dr. Ato Forson (22%).
Among NDC supporters, Haruna secures 30%, ahead of the party chairman’s 24%. The numbers reflect a tight and still-fluid race.
Public Sentiment Signals Shift in Political Landscape
The poll shows a general improvement in public sentiment under President Mahama’s administration, with 70% of voters believing the country is headed in the right direction—a significant jump from 62% in April.
President Mahama’s approval rating sits at 73%, with high marks in economic management (74%), job creation (67%), and tackling illegal mining (65%).
This uptick could boost the NDC’s 2028 prospects, regardless of who leads the ticket.
Yet, the NPP remains a resilient force. While party popularity has dipped (now at 32%), the charismatic pull of Dr. Bawumia and his policy background especially in infrastructure digitization—could recalibrate the party’s fortunes.
2028 Outlook
If the trends hold, Ghana is likely heading for a 2028 presidential contest between two contrasting but compelling candidates: Dr. Bawumia, the technocrat economist with deep state experience, and Haruna, the legal mind and grassroots politician with years in Parliament.
While campaign narratives, voter turnout, and coalition building will heavily influence the outcome, the data positions Haruna Iddrisu and Dr. Bawumia as the men to beat.
Source: July 2025 National Tracking Poll by Global InfoAnalytics
Poll conducted between: May 10–June 27, 2025
Sample size: 10,493 voters | Margin of error: ±1.23% | Confidence level: 99%
